Truckload Rates November 2026: Spot Up 40%+ as Capacity Tightens

Truckload spot rates are running more than 40% above last year heading into the 2026 holiday season. For the week of Oct. 26 to Nov. 1, DAT's all-in spot averages were $3.14 per mile for dry van, $3.64 for flatbed and $3.69 for reefer, up 46.6%, 44.2% and 44.6% year over year, according to BlueGrace Logistics' November freight market update. Contract rates are climbing too, but more slowly. Here's what the numbers say, what's driving them and what owner-operators and small fleets should do about it.

Where spot rates stand right now

The latest DAT figures cited by BlueGrace (all-in, including fuel surcharges) for the week ending Nov. 1:

• Dry van: $3.14/mile, up 46.6% year over year, flat week over week, up 1.3% month over month
• Flatbed: $3.64/mile, up 44.2% year over year, up 4.2% week over week
• Reefer: $3.69/mile, up 44.6% year over year, up 0.3% week over week

Month over month, rates are roughly flat. That suggests the market has settled at a much higher level rather than continuing to spike. A FreightWaves report published Nov. 3 put spot rates up 41% year over year through October, with contract rates resetting 10–12% higher depending on the index.

For context, this cycle's sharpest jump came in early June. MarketScale reported that the SONAR National Truckload Index reached $3.83 per mile, which it called an all-time record. Different indexes measure rates differently, so the June SONAR figure and today's DAT figures shouldn't be compared directly. Still, both show a market that has moved well off the lows of 2023–2025.

Capacity is the main story

The data points to fewer trucks rather than a freight boom. In the same BlueGrace update:

• DAT load-to-truck ratios were up 67.1% year over year for van, 51.8% for flatbed and 40.2% for reefer.
• Spot load posts were up 14.3% year over year, while truck posts were down 27.6%.

Demand indicators are modest by comparison. The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was 114.0 in September, up 0.8% from August and flat year over year. The Cass Freight Index showed shipments up 1.9% year over year in September, while Cass expenditures were up 20.4%. Freight volume is roughly flat while what shippers pay is up sharply, which points to supply as the driver.

Analysts flagged this back in June. In a Transport Topics report, R.W. Baird's Dan Moore said, "What we saw was a supply-driven inflection in rates, which has never happened before."

What's tightening supply

Several factors cited in the sources are working together:

• Enforcement. BlueGrace says "FMCSA CDL and English-language enforcement continues constraining the produce-corridor driver pool," and notes that CDL and hours-of-service enforcement continues. FTR's Avery Vise pointed to "stricter enforcement regarding foreign drivers" in the June Transport Topics piece.
• Carrier attrition. Fleets that left during the long freight recession aren't coming back quickly. "That capacity does not come back overnight, particularly when the economics of adding equipment remain challenging," BlueGrace's Raddy Velkov wrote.
• Diesel. EIA's national average diesel price was $6.292 per gallon for the week of Nov. 2, down from a $6.529 peak on Sept. 21 but still far above last year, per BlueGrace. FreightWaves reports that diesel costs have risen faster than all-in spot rates for about six months, squeezing small and mid-size carriers that depend on the spot market.

Contract rates: rising, but lagging

Contract pricing reacts more slowly than spot, and that gap matters for anyone weighing contract freight against the load boards.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index was 154.8 in September, up 10.1% year over year and 0.6% month over month. BlueGrace describes it as the 21st straight month of annual growth and on pace for about a 7% gain in 2026.
• In June, FTR projected 2026 contract rates about 8% above 2025, with sequential increases through at least mid-2027 (Transport Topics).
• Chris Pickett, chief commercial officer at Flock Freight, told FreightWaves he expects contract rates to rise 15–20% by mid-2027, with sequential declines not until early 2028. That is one company's forecast, not a published index.

With spot running 40%-plus above a year ago and contract up closer to 10%, many carriers holding older contract lanes are hauling below what the spot market pays. Expect shippers and brokers to face tough fourth-quarter and first-quarter bid seasons. BlueGrace expects contract negotiations heading into Q4 and Q1 to be difficult.

What the outlook looks like

Forecasts differ, and none of them is a guarantee:

• In June, Uber Freight projected spot rates 20–25% above prior-year levels for the rest of 2026. Actual October results came in well above that range.
• Pickett told FreightWaves he expects spot to rise another 10–15% to a cyclical peak of roughly 45–50% above year-ago levels, this quarter or next. He called diesel the wildcard, saying resolution of conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine could pull crude down to $70–80 a barrel.
• For refrigerated freight, BlueGrace expects the rate floor set during the October harvest to carry into California citrus and Florida winter produce season.

What owner-operators and small fleets should do

A strong rate environment helps, but high fuel costs mean gross revenue isn't the same as profit. Practical steps:

• Know your cost per mile, including fuel. With diesel near $6.29 nationally, re-run your numbers before taking any load. A high spot rate on a long deadhead can still lose money.
• Check your fuel surcharge terms. If you haul contract freight, confirm your surcharge table reflects current diesel prices. Stale schedules can wipe out the gains from a rate increase.
• Use the bid season. Shippers who leaned on the spot market are re-bidding. If you have reliable service history on specific lanes, now is the time to price them at today's market.
• Balance spot and contract. Spot pays more today, but contract freight gives you a floor if the cycle turns.
• Stay compliant. Enforcement is one reason capacity is tight. An out-of-service order or a failed audit costs far more now, when every day off the road means missing high-paying loads.
• Be careful about expanding. Before adding trucks, stress-test the purchase against lower rates and continued high fuel, not just today's numbers.

Key takeaways

• DAT spot rates for the week of Oct. 26 to Nov. 1 were $3.14/mile (van), $3.64 (flatbed) and $3.69 (reefer), each up roughly 44–47% year over year.
• The squeeze is supply-driven: truck posts are down 27.6% year over year while freight volumes are close to flat.
• Contract rates are rising more slowly, with the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index up 10.1% year over year in September.
• Diesel at about $6.29/gallon is eating into carrier margins even at higher rates.
• Forecasts call for continued strength into 2027, but they vary widely, and fuel is the biggest unknown.

Thinking about adding capacity while rates are strong? Browse inventory to compare used trucks and trailers from sellers across the US.