Diesel Prices Hit $6.29: What Truckers Should Expect Into 2027

U.S. diesel averaged $6.292 a gallon in the week of November 2, 2026, according to the EIA's weekly retail price data. That is about 6 cents lower than the week before and the first weekly decline since mid-October. It is still $2.54 more than a year ago. The EIA expects prices to ease slowly through 2027 but not to return to 2024–2025 levels, so owner-operators and small fleets should plan for expensive fuel through this winter and into next year.

Below: where prices stand by region, why diesel is this high, what the government forecast says, and practical steps to protect your margins.

Where diesel prices stand this week

The EIA's November 3 release shows the national on-highway diesel average over the last six weeks (EIA):

• Sept. 28: $6.382
• Oct. 5: $6.199
• Oct. 12: $6.179
• Oct. 19: $6.276
• Oct. 26: $6.352
• Nov. 2: $6.292

Regular gasoline fell 11.6 cents to $4.153. That puts diesel's premium over gas at about $2.14 a gallon, Blue Book Services reported.

Prices fell in every region EIA tracks, but they still vary a lot from place to place. These are the regional averages for the week of Nov. 2, as reported by Blue Book Services from EIA data:

• California: $8.076, the only area above $8, and up $3.14 from a year ago
• West Coast: $7.272
• Central Atlantic: $6.486, now the highest outside the West Coast
• Rocky Mountain: $6.445
• New England: $6.416
• Midwest: $6.402
• Gulf Coast: $5.912
• Lower Atlantic: $5.814, the cheapest in the country

On routes that cross regions, there is more than $2 a gallon between the cheapest and the most expensive fuel in the country, so where you fuel up makes a real difference.

Why diesel is so expensive right now

In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said the September run-up "was driven by higher crude oil prices in addition to rising crack spreads." The crack spread is the gap between the price of crude and the price of refined diesel.

Three things are behind the high prices:

• Crude oil. Brent crude averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 more than in August. The EIA says prices "rose following increased attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers around the Middle East," and daily Brent reached $131 on Sept. 15 (EIA global oil outlook). The agency's forecast assumes Middle East oil flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Shipping costs. The EIA says tanker rates hit records in September because of rising insurance costs, which adds "upward pressure on delivered crude oil prices to refiners."
• Low distillate inventories. East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below their 2021–2025 seasonal average in September. The EIA notes the East Coast "consumes more distillate fuel than it produces" and expects importers to have trouble rebuilding stocks during the winter heating season (EIA).

Diesel and heating oil are both distillates. Winter heating demand in the Northeast competes for the same barrels truckers buy. That is one reason the East Coast is worth watching closely over the next few months.

What the EIA forecasts for 2026 and 2027

The EIA's October STEO forecasts retail diesel will average:

• 2026: $5.19 a gallon, raised from $5.07 in the previous outlook
• 2027: $4.49 a gallon, raised from $4.40

For comparison, diesel averaged $3.76 in 2024 and $3.66 in 2025, according to the same outlook.

The EIA expects prices to "come down gradually with crude oil prices and a slight recovery in inventories." It forecasts Brent falling to an average of $87 a barrel by the second quarter of 2027 and $74 by the fourth quarter of 2027, on the assumption that most Middle East production returns to pre-conflict levels by mid-2027 (EIA).

Two caveats for planning:

• The EIA expects U.S. distillate inventories to stay below average throughout the forecast. That keeps "diesel crack spreads elevated and retail prices above $4/gal through 2027."
• It also warns that "decreases in wholesale crack spreads will not immediately translate into lower retail prices." Pump prices usually lag when wholesale prices fall.

The forecast depends on geopolitical assumptions, and the EIA has raised its diesel outlook rather than lowered it in its latest revision. The next STEO comes out November 10, the same day as the next weekly price update.

What $6 diesel means for your cost per mile

A simple example shows the scale. These are illustrative numbers, not industry averages. A truck getting 6.5 miles per gallon:

• At $6.29 a gallon, fuel costs about $0.97 per mile.
• At roughly $3.75 a gallon (about where diesel was a year ago), it cost about $0.58 per mile.

That is close to 39 cents more per mile. Over 100,000 miles a year, that works out to roughly $39,000 in extra fuel spending for a single truck. Plug in your own mpg and miles to see what it means for your operation.

Practical steps to protect your margins

• Check your fuel surcharge terms. If you haul under contract, confirm your surcharge resets often (weekly is common) and uses a published index like the EIA weekly average. If a rate was quoted when diesel was much cheaper, it may no longer cover your costs.
• Price spot loads on today's fuel. Work out your break-even rate per mile from this week's diesel price for the regions you'll actually run through, not last month's.
• Plan where you fuel up. With Gulf Coast and Lower Atlantic diesel more than $2 cheaper than California, choosing your fuel stops on long routes can save real money. Fuel cards and discount networks help too.
• Cut idle time. APUs, bunk heaters and idle-reduction settings matter more when every gallon costs over $6, especially as cold weather arrives.
• Keep up with maintenance that affects mpg. Tire pressure, alignment, aerodynamic parts and clean air filters all affect fuel economy. Skipping maintenance to save cash usually costs more at the pump.
• Manage speed. Running a few mph slower generally improves fuel economy for heavy trucks. Weigh that against your delivery schedule.
• Keep a cash cushion. Fuel is paid up front and freight pays later. Factoring, quick-pay programs or a line of credit can bridge the gap. Know what each one costs before you use it.
• Factor fuel into equipment decisions. If you're replacing a truck, real-world fuel economy is worth more than usual right now. Compare spec'd mpg and maintenance records when you shop.

Key takeaways

• U.S. diesel averaged $6.292/gal the week of Nov. 2, 2026, down about 6 cents week over week but up $2.54 from a year ago.
• California ($8.076) is the most expensive; the Lower Atlantic ($5.814) and Gulf Coast ($5.912) are the cheapest.
• The EIA attributes high prices to elevated crude after Middle East supply disruptions, record tanker rates and low distillate inventories, especially on the East Coast.
• The EIA forecasts retail diesel averaging $5.19 in 2026 and $4.49 in 2027, staying above $4 through 2027.
• Review fuel surcharges, price loads on current fuel costs, plan fuel stops by region and keep cash on hand for fuel.

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